The sharp reduction in travel caused by the COVID-19 pandemic quickly created a financial emergency in the transportation sector, as fees paid by travelers provide much of the revenue for transportation. This chapter reports on research that began late in the summer of 2020, a time when there was widespread recognition among transportation experts that falling travel was decreasing fuel tax revenue, but great uncertainty about how much transportation revenue would be lost in both the short and longer term. The project developed six scenarios projecting California’s state-generated transportation revenue through 2040. The scenarios vary by factors such as the length of the economic fallout from the pandemic and changes in the number of electric vehicles in the light-duty fleet. Although the specific findings presented in this chapter come from California, the results illustrate different ways that scenario analysis helps policymakers make decisions in the face of immense uncertainty.
COVID-19 and Transportation Revenue: Using Scenario Analysis to Project a Range of Plausible Futures
Springer Tracts on Transportation, Traffic
2022-07-23
14 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
Fitting human Mars exploration into plausible futures
AIAA | 1996
|Fitting Human Mars Exploration Into Plausible Futures
British Library Conference Proceedings | 1996
|Automated vehicle guidance concepts:an investigation of plausible futures
Automotive engineering | 1996
|Automated Vehicle Guidance Concepts: An Investigation of Plausible Futures
British Library Conference Proceedings | 1996
|Using Real Options for Revenue Risk Mitigation in Transportation Project Financing
Transportation Research Record | 2007
|