Reasonable prediction of port throughput is important for the development planning of large ports and logistics impact areas. In this paper, a statistical method based on OD is proposed to forecast the throughput of new port areas. The new port area cannot predict the future development by using time series analysis method due to the lack of historical data. Therefore, this paper uses the elasticity coefficient method to determine the growth rate of freight volume in future years based on the link between the regional socio-economic development status and the growth of traffic and transportation volume, so as to predict the total regional freight demand. Then the Fratar model and gravity model are used to predict the trend-type freight volume and induced incremental freight volume distribution respectively, and the OD matrix of future freight volume distribution is obtained, and the roadway freight volume is distributed on the road network. Finally, taking C-HZB port area as an example, the throughput from 2021 to 2030 is forecasted, the feasibility of the method is verified by predicting the new port throughput reliably.
Port Throughput Forecasting Based on Origin-Destination Freight Volume
Lect. Notes Electrical Eng.
International Conference on SmartRail, Traffic and Transportation Engineering ; 2023 ; Changsha, China July 28, 2023 - July 30, 2023
Developments and Applications in SmartRail, Traffic, and Transportation Engineering ; Chapter : 13 ; 140-149
2024-08-14
10 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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