In terms of road transportation, the ratio of newly purchased electric passenger cars is increasing to the detriment of internal combustion engine vehicles. According to current assumptions, this process will continue, but the speed and extent of the change are still open questions. The entire road transport sector is just before a very significant transformation and forecasting this conversion is a burning issue. The changes will arise many challenges, among which growing electricity demand is a great concern. It simultaneously appears to shift towards renewable energy sources in electric power generation. In this work, the growth of newly purchased and already used electric light vehicles is investigated based on the example of Hungary. Taking into consideration the latest available data, the spreading of electromobility is forecasted using an exponential model. It is assumed that the annual new electric car's number shows exponential growth until the year when all newly purchased light vehicles will be fully electric. Three different scenarios are investigated in the manuscript: one assuming a slow increase, one calculating with a rapidly spreading, and one between these two other options representing the most likely case based on the authors’ expectations. Calculating the expected numbers of electric vehicles and their ratio among all light vehicles makes it possible to forecast the additional electricity demand. Based on our opinion, it is a very important and urgent issue, taking into consideration the very long investment and realization time of projects aiming at generating surplus electrical power.
Electromobility: The Spreading of Electric Cars Versus Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles
Lect.Notes Mechanical Engineering
Vehicle and Automotive Engineering ; 2022 ; MISKOLC, Hungary September 08, 2022 - September 09, 2022
2022-09-10
9 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
ITS for electric vehicles - an electromobility roadmap
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