In this paper, we examine the modeling process of traffic conditions that drivers learn such as travel time through longterm learning behavior under a nonstationary traffic environment. We found that rational expectations formation about the route travel time can be expressed by the adaptive expectations model when the travel time changes in accordance with a nonstationary process which consists of permanent shock and transient shock. We found that the adaptive parameter of the model converges to a fixed value corresponding to the route conditions. Furthermore, when the traffic environment follows stationary processes, the expectations of the traffic agent are congruent with the rational expectations. In other words, rational expectations formation can be regarded as a special case of the expectation formation model that is proposed in this research. The paper is concluded by illustrating some numerical examples.


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    Title :

    Drivers' adaptive expectations formation in nonstationary traffic environment


    Additional title:

    KSCE J Civ Eng


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2001-03-01


    Size :

    11 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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