An efficient prediction of the extreme value of traffic loads is crucial for the structural design, reliability evaluation, maintenance planning, and further life-cycle cost analysis of bridges. In this work, a novel method is proposed for predicting the appropriate extreme traffic load distribution. Specifically, the average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) statistical model is estimated from the historical traffic loads which was collected through a weigh-in-motion system installed in toll stations. The basic idea of the ACER approach lies in the introduction of a cascade of conditioning approximations and the average exceedance rate to capture the dependence effects and obtain the data tail, the trend features of which are fitted with a similar Gumbel distribution function and extrapolated to the concerned level. An illustration case dealing with traffic loads using the ACER strategy is presented, the extreme value and confidence interval (CI) in any return period can be predicted by application of this approach. Furthermore, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method based on the asymptotic extreme theory is also applied to illustrate the advantages of the ACER method. The ACER method has advantages in analyzing extreme traffic loads, with good robustness and the ability to handle extreme value prediction for different sampling strategies, it also can produce more accurate confidence intervals and predicts consistent extreme values. The study results are expected to help accurately determine traffic loads and ensure safety in bridge engineering.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Extreme Value Prediction of Traffic Loads Using the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate Method


    Additional title:

    KSCE J Civ Eng


    Contributors:
    Zhang, Liping (author) / Bu, Jianqing (author) / Zhou, Liming (author) / Cao, Wenlong (author) / Zhao, Cunbao (author) / Chai, Wei (author)

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2023-12-01


    Size :

    12 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    RESCUE HOIST CABLE ANGLE EXCEEDANCE DETECTION ARRANGEMENT

    LOPES DAVID R / MAGHSOODI BEJAN / LIMAS ZACHARY et al. | European Patent Office | 2020

    Free access


    System for providing landing exceedance warnings and avoidance

    ENNS RUSSELL / KASHAWLIC BRYAN | European Patent Office | 2017

    Free access

    RESCUE HOIST CABLE ANGLE EXCEEDANCE DETECTION ARRANGEMENT

    LOPES DAVID R / MAGHSOODI BEJAN / LIMAS ZACHARY et al. | European Patent Office | 2022

    Free access