AbstractValidation of travel demand models, although recognised as important, is seldom undertaken. This study adds to the scarce literature in this field by undertaking an external validation of a multi-modal transit route choice model. The model was estimated using smart card data for the urban transit network of Amsterdam before the introduction of a new metro line and is used to predict changes in travel behaviour after the network change. To validate, the model was checked for changes in estimated parameters between the two time periods, and predictive ability was evaluated at different aggregation levels. Although most model parameters were found to be unstable between the two contexts, the predictive performance at all levels was similar to the locally estimated model. Moreover, individual choices and transit mode-share predictions were found to be close to the observed ones. The errors were relatively larger for the link and route-level predictions, some of which could be attributed to the assumptions made regarding consideration choice set given as input to the model. On comparing alternative model specifications, using generic instead of mode-specific travel attributes lead to a strong degradation in predictive performance. Conversely, a model incorporating overlap between routes, with a better model fit in the base period, did not offer a clear improvement in prediction performance. The study highlights the need to validate transit route choice models before using them for deriving policy recommendations, especially in this data-rich age in which it can often be undertaken at a relatively low additional cost.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Validation of a multi-modal transit route choice model using smartcard data


    Additional title:

    Transportation


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Transportation ; 51 , 5 ; 1809-1829


    Publication date :

    2024-10-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English






    Perception of overlap in multi-modal urban transit route choice

    Dixit, Malvika / Cats, Oded / Brands, Ties et al. | Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2023

    Free access

    Multidimensional visualization of transit smartcard data using space–time plots and data cubes

    Song, Ying / Fan, Yingling / Li, Xin et al. | Online Contents | 2017


    Multidimensional visualization of transit smartcard data using space–time plots and data cubes

    Song, Ying / Fan, Yingling / Li, Xin et al. | Online Contents | 2017