In this paper, based on previous literature, it summarizes the influencing factors of dry bulk shipping market in such time dimensions as instantaneous, seasonal, short-term, medium-term and long-term, demarcates the boundary of dry bulk shipping system and its endogenous and exogenous variables, and obtains the endogenous causality diagram of dry bulk freight fluctuation by system dynamics analysis. Furthermore, by looking for the regression relationship between the main variables in the same or early or late period of the series, the dynamic prediction model of the shipping market is established to deduce the change of supply and demand of the international dry bulk shipping sector and the development trend of the annual BDI index, in order to achieve the purpose of providing reference for shipowners, investors and freight derivatives dealers in the international dry bulk shipping.
Study on endogenous development trend of dry bulk shipping market
5th International Conference on Computer Information Science and Application Technology (CISAT 2022) ; 2022 ; Chongqing,China
Proc. SPIE ; 12451
2022-10-20
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
Springer Verlag | 2023
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