Probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated finite element analyses of large models. Re-analysis methods have been proposed with the premise to estimate accurately the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. Although these methods increase computational efficiency, they are still not efficient enough for probabilistic analysis of large-scale dynamic systems with low failure probabilities (less or equal to 10-3). This paper presents a methodology that uses deterministic and probabilistic re-analysis methods to generate sample points of the response. Subsequently, tail modeling is used to estimate the right tail of the response PDF and the probability of failure a highly reliable system. The methodology is demonstrated on probabilistic vibration analysis of a realistic vehicle FE model.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Reliability Estimation of Large-Scale Dynamic Systems by using Re-analysis and Tail Modeling


    Additional title:

    Sae Technical Papers



    Conference:

    SAE World Congress & Exhibition ; 2009



    Publication date :

    2009-04-20




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English




    Reliability estimation of large-scale dynamic systems by using re-analysis and tail modeling

    Mourelatos,Z.P. / Song,J. / Nikolaidis,E. et al. | Automotive engineering | 2009


    2009-01-0200 Reliability Estimation of Large-Scale Dynamic Systems by using Re-analysis and Tail Modeling

    Mourelatos, Z.P. / Song, J. / Nikolaidis, E. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2009


    Reliability Estimation Using MCMC Based Tail Modeling

    Acar, Erdem / Bayrak, Gamze | AIAA | 2016


    RELIABILITY ESTIMATION THROUGH GUIDED TAIL MODELING USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES

    Acar, E. / American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics; International Society for Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2012