Probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated finite element analyses of large models. Re-analysis methods have been proposed with the premise to estimate accurately the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. Although these methods increase computational efficiency, they are still not efficient enough for probabilistic analysis of large-scale dynamic systems with low failure probabilities (less or equal to 10-3). This paper presents a methodology that uses deterministic and probabilistic re-analysis methods to generate sample points of the response. Subsequently, tail modeling is used to estimate the right tail of the response PDF and the probability of failure a highly reliable system. The methodology is demonstrated on probabilistic vibration analysis of a realistic vehicle FE model.
Reliability Estimation of Large-Scale Dynamic Systems by using Re-analysis and Tail Modeling
Sae Technical Papers
SAE World Congress & Exhibition ; 2009
2009-04-20
Conference paper
English
Reliability estimation of large-scale dynamic systems by using re-analysis and tail modeling
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