Abstract The main purpose of this study is to assess the forecasting capability of the gravity model and to investigate the merit of including K-factors when using the model. Peak hour trip data was obtained for four study year periods 1962, 1971, 1976 and 1981 for the City of Winnipeg. Analysis of the calibration results indicated that the F-factors for the twenty year period were stable within a range of values. In general, however, the K-factors were found to be inconsistent from one prediction period to the next, and when used in forecasting trips they resulted in larger errors than without their use. The validity of using K-factors or the method which has been used to determine them is questionable. It was concluded that while K-factors are very meaningful in theory (as defined), they are not appropriate for use in predicting O-D matrices based on the method by which they are currently estimated (i.e. as a simple ratio). Further study is needed to investigate an alternative method of calibrating the gravity model such as the cell-by-cell regression method.


    Access

    Access via TIB

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    The reliability of using the gravity model for forecasting trip distribution


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    1987




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English



    Classification :

    BKL:    55.80 Verkehrswesen, Transportwesen: Allgemeines / 74.75 Verkehrsplanung, Verkehrspolitik
    Local classification TIB:    535/7000





    A Purpose Based Trip Distribution Gravity Model for an Indian City

    Sanjay Kumar, V. S. / Anjaneyulu, M. V. L. R. | Springer Verlag | 2022


    Trip distribution forecasting in fuzzy multi-commodity transportation networks

    Zandi, F. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2007