Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.
Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis
AMOS Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference ; 2016 ; Maui, HI, United States
2016-09-20
Conference paper
No indication
English
Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2016
|Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis
NTIS | 2023
|