The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.


    Access

    Access via TIB

    Check availability in my library


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations


    Contributors:

    Conference:

    4th European Conference on Space Debris ; 2005 ; Darmstadt, Germany


    Publication date :

    2005-01-01


    Type of media :

    Preprint


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




    UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERATIONS FOR BALLISTIC LIMIT EQUATIONS

    Schonberg, W. P. / Evans, H. J. / Williamsen, J. E. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2005


    Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

    Schonberg, W. P. / Evans, H. J. / Williamsen, J. E. et al. | NTRS | 2005



    BALLISTIC LIMIT EQUATIONS FOR CYLINDER PROJECTILES IMPACTING WHIPPLE SHIELD

    Wu, Qiang / Gong, Zizheng / Song, Guangming et al. | TIBKAT | 2020