An important part of any quantitative analysis of freight transport is a capability for forecasting the demand for a certain type of service under a given set of conditions. The paper represents a first attempt to develop a freight demand model which involves the choice of mode as well as shipment size without imposing the assumption of constant transport rate. A multinomial logit model of mode and shipment size is developed at the level of the individual firm. The utility function is derived from logistics inventory theory which considers explicitly the tradeoffs the firm can make in response to a short-run change in transport level of service. The model incorporates as variables all those factors that influence the choices that were made, from the service measures in which transport performance is measured to the characteristics of the commodity being shipped, the markets involved and the receivers' use of the product.


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    Title :

    Development of a Policy Sensitive Model for Forecasting Freight Demand


    Contributors:
    Y. S. Chiang (author) / P. O. Roberts (author) / M. Ben-Akiva (author)

    Publication date :

    1981


    Size :

    234 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English







    Forecasting Short-Term Freight Transportation Demand: Poisson STARMA Model

    Garrido, R. A. / Mahmassani, H. S. / National Research Council; Transportation Research Board | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1998


    Forecasting Short-Term Freight Transportation Demand: Poisson STARMA Model

    Garrido, Rodrigo A. / Mahmassani, Hani S. | Transportation Research Record | 1998