A combination of linear responses model is used to estimate the changes in the global means of the carbon dioxide (CO(sub 2)) concentration, of the surface temperature, and of the seal level due to aviation. Apart from CO(sub 2) , also the forcing by aircraft induced ozone changes is considered. The model is applied for several CO(sub 2) emission scenarios, which are based on reported fuel consumption for the past and IPCC scenarios for the future, and corresponding nitrogen oxides (NO(sub x)) emissions. The aviation CO(sub 2) emissions from past until 1995 enlarged the atmospheric CO(sub 2) concentration by 1.4 ppmv (1.7% of the anthropogenic CO(sub 2) increase since 1800). The global mean surface temperature increased by about 0.004 K, and the sea level rose by 0.024 cm until 1995. Under the assumption that present-day aircraft induced ozone changes cause an equilibrium surface warming of 0.05 K, the transient responses amount to 0.03 K in surface temperature and 0.15 cm in sea level in 1995. In a scenario, which assumes a threefold increase in aviation fuel consumption until 2050 and an annual increase rate of 1% thereafter until 2100, the model predicts a CO(sub 2) concentration change of 13 ppmv by 2100, causing temperature increases of 0.01, 0.02, 0.05 K, and sea level increases of 0.06, 0.15, 0.34 cm in the years 2015, 2050, 2100, respectively, due to CO(sub 2) emissions alone. The radiative forcing due to aircraft induced ozone increase causes larger temperature and sea level changes than the aircraft CO(sub 2) forcing. Also, climate reacts more promptly to changes in ozone emissions than to changes in CO(sub 2) emissions from aviation. Finally, even under the assumption of a rather small equilibrium temperature change from aircraft induced ozone (0.01 K for the 1992 NO(sub x) emissions), a proposed new combustor technology which reduces specific NO(sub x) emissions causes a smaller temperature change during the next century than the standard technology does, despite of a slightly enhanced fuel consumption. (orig.)
Estimates of the climate response to aircraft emissions scenarios
1998
35 pages
Report
No indication
English
Estimates of Climate Response to Aircraft Emission Scenarios
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