This report presents an initial bounding estimate of the probability of an aircraft accident involving buildings at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) which could release radioactive materials and could effect the public, the environment, or Laboratory employees outside the immediate area of Building 332. Estimates of the aircraft accident probabilities for Building 332 are determined based on current commercial, military, and general aviation statistics. The methodology used in this study is based on that developed by D.G. Eisenhut for use in the siting of nuclear reactors, as modified in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan. Specific probabilities are developed for LLNL based on a review of commercial air carrier accidents in the US from 1970 to July 1990; military data for the San Francisco Bay Area from 1970 through 1989; and general (and commuter) aviation accidents in the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Joaquin from 1970 to April 1990. The probability of a general aviation accident which results in a release of radioactive material from Building 332 was determined as a product of the probability of an accident occurring, the probability of penetration of the building, the probability that radioactive material is present in the area, and the probability that a fire occurs to release the material. Aircraft accidents involving Building 332 and commercial and military aircraft have estimated annual probabilities of 1 E-8 each. Neither are credible events. Accidents involving Building 332 and general aviation aircraft are credible events with a conservatively estimated annual probability of 2.7 E-6. However, such accidents will not credibly result in a release of radioactive material. A general aviation aircraft accident which releases radioactive material from Building 332 is conservatively estimated to have an annual probability of less than 2.4 E-8. 14 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.


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    Title :

    Report on the aircraft accident probability study using typical EIS aircraft accident analysis methodology for Building 332


    Contributors:

    Publication date :

    1991


    Size :

    19 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




    Aircraft accident investigation

    Davis, R.C. | Engineering Index Backfile | 1956





    Aircraft accident investigation

    Davis, R.C. | Engineering Index Backfile | 1956