The report describes a multivariate model of auto ownership and mode choice, as well as its use in forecasting 1990 travel behavior, for a sample of 346,000 households and 407,000 workers in the largest 125 SMSAs. Household auto ownership decisions depend on family type and composition, household income, residential location, workplace location, highway and transit service levels, and measures of overall urban spatial structure for each SMSA. Given the number of cars owned and the variables used to explain auto ownership, each worker in the household selects one of five worktrip modes. The research advances the field of travel demand forecasting by considering auto ownership and mode choice behavior in a large number of metropolitan areas; by quantifying how metropolitan land use patterns affect auto ownership and use; by documenting the influence of racial discrimination on black household behavior; and by analyzing walk to work trips. The 1990 projections indicate that increases in household income will have the most significant impact on urban travel behavior, with changes in household composition and size and land use patterns having smaller effects.
Forecasting Auto Ownership and Mode Choice for U.S. Metropolitan Areas. Volume 1
1978
186 pages
Report
No indication
English
Transportation & Traffic Planning , Road Transportation , Travel demand , Urban areas , Forecasting , Mathematical models , Travel patterns , Automobiles , Land use , Metropolitan areas , Automobile ownership , Modal choice , Standard metropolitan statistical areas , Household characteristics , Travel demand models , Commuter transportation , Journey to work , Walking , Racial discrimination