Among systems that provide sensor data of their performance, one approach to prognostic estimation is forecasting, i.e. prediction of measurable parameters and comparison of predicted values against established operational limits. Forecasting can be attempted statistically, or can be based on rigorous physical simulation. However, combining these approaches is difficult where system mode behavior or timing of system activities is uncertain, limiting the accuracy or applicability of a forecast. In this paper we describe a method to modify simulation outputs to better match current telemetry. We begin with a familiar autoregressive approach to model residuals between predicted spacecraft performance, provided by physics-based modeling tools, and up-to- date spacecraft telemetry. This result is then improved by transforming the simulation result to better fit recent data, and the transformation is applied to generate more accurate future predictions. The method is suitable for real- time signal prediction. We will motivate this approach and characterize its performance using example telemetry from the NASA Mars Exploration Rover spacecraft.*.


    Access

    Access via TIB

    Check availability in my library


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Forecasting Spacecraft Telemetry Using Modified Physical Predictions


    Contributors:
    R. Mackey (author) / I. Kulikov (author)

    Publication date :

    2010


    Size :

    11 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




    Spacecraft telemetry and command

    Charles, F. J. / Larson, F. L. | NTRS | 1967



    An adaptable spacecraft telemetry system.

    Czarcinski, E. A. / Maxwell, M. S. / Silverman, J. R. | NTRS | 1965


    Estimating Torque Imparted on Spacecraft Using Telemetry

    Lee, Allan Y. / Wang, Eric K. / Macala, Glenn A. | NTRS | 2013