The report provides a comprehensive, unclassified assessment of the merchant shipping capacity that would be necessary to support the U.S. economy in a conflict occurring in 1990. Shipping requirements are derived from MARAD estimates of the level of essential commodity imports during both a severe import disruption and a moderate import disruption. These requirements are summarized for three general types of ships: general cargo, dry bulk, and tanker. The MARAD study also examines whether sufficient shipping capacity would be available to meet U.S. economic support shipping requirements. The study finds that the shipping capacity that is considered reliable and available from the world fleets is likely to be adequate to meet the needs for emergency shipping in the U.S. foreign trades. The U.S.-flag tanker fleet should be able to meet all domestic tanker requirements except under the conditions expected to prevail when the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is empty, at which time some foreign-flag tonnage would be needed.


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