The Federal Aviation Administrations Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) have prepared projections of global demand for commercial space launch services for the period 1999 to 2010. The jointly published 1999 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts combines: The COMSTAC 1999 Commercial GSO Spacecraft Mission Model, which projects demand for commercial satellites that operate in geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and the resulting launch demand to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO); and The FAAs 1999 LEO Commercial Market Projections, which projects commercial launch demand for all space systems in non-geosynchronous orbits (NGSO), such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), and elliptical orbits (ELI). Together, the COMSTAC and FAA forecasts project that an average of 51 commercial space launches worldwide will occur annually through 2010. This is an increase of over 40 percent from the 36 commercial launches conducted worldwide in 1998. Specifically, the forecasts project that on average the following type and number of launches will be conducted each year: 25 launches of medium-to-heavy launch vehicles to GSO; 15 launches of medium-to-heavy launch vehicles to LEO, or NGSO orbits; and 11 launches of small launch vehicles to LEO. The demand for commercial launches is expected to fluctuate on a year-to-year basis, peaking at 56 in 2003 and again in 2006 with 58 launches.


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