This is a report on forecasts for the further development of the automobile market to the end of the century, accompanied by illustrative graphs, diagrams, and tables. Given favorable boundary conditions, a continuing high level of newly registered automobiles is deemed possible in the medium term. In the long term the dynamics of motorization remain uncurbed by current estimations. Further topics are the climax of the fourth cycle in the automobile sector (solved initial problems, increase in the total number of automobiles attains that of former peak years, peak of newly registered cars, problems with the demand for replacement), the medium-term growth-rate at a high level (substantial increase in registered cars, scenarios, demand for replacement determines the level of new registrations), and the structural changes of automobile ownership. Evidence is presented that women will determine the further growth of motorization (already every third car is bought by a woman; the structure of car ownership is getting broader). The final chapter is dedicated to the stabilization of motorization (uncertain forecast of the population figure, automobile density, level of automobiles registered at the climax around the turn of the century). (ERA citation 13:048755)
Women Determine Future Motorization Rate. Shell's Forecast of the Number of Automobiles to the Year 2000
1987
32 pages
Report
No indication
English
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