A technique for estimating volumes of seasonal recreational traffic on rural roads has been developed by the Tourism and Recreation Research Unit of Edinburgh University using data from the TRRL 50-point traffic census. Harmonic analysis was used to develop a model which gives a prediction of total daily flow for each day of the year. From the forecasts of total traffic, the seasonal recreational and holiday traffic component can be estimated by applying the 'surplus traffic' hypothesis. This states that levels of nonsummer traffic represent mainly 'utility' traffic which can be expected to maintain a relatively constant level throughout the year. Subtracting an estimate of utility traffic from the total traffic flow yields the seasonal recreational component. Evidence supporting this hypothesis, modified to allow for winter recreational flows, is presented. The final traffic 'mix' model was tested using data from two Scottish border roads. Results were satisfactory, but further testing would be appropriate when suitable data become available.
A Method for Estimating Recreational Traffic Flows
1976
35 pages
Report
No indication
English
A method for estimating recreational traffic flows
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