Recent technological advances have made possible sophisticated data-gathering capabilities for earth-orbiting spacecraft. Naval forces would appear to be particularly vulnerable to satellite surveillance since they operate on the surface of uniform, low-noise oceans where camouflaging is difficult. A methodology is presented for helping a naval commander avoid satellite surveillance. With known satellite orbital characteristics, the time and location of detection zones along a ship's planned route can be calculated. It is suggested that a commander can avoid many of these detection zones by varying his speed as a function of time. A graphical representation is presented and its limitations are discussed. A decision aid based on this methodology is being developed. It uses probabilistic information, such as weather, to find the expected number of detections for any speed profile. An optimal speed profile can be found by means of dynamic programming.


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