This report presents a methodology to calculate the long term risk of cargo shifting onboard a merchant vessel carrying unit cargo. The methodology has been developed within the project Probabilistic Models for Ship Safety in Rough Seas, which aims at a tool for assessing ship safety with respect to cargo shifting. Fields of application are comparison of different vessels, routes or cargo concepts. The models used in the calculations are the wave model, representing the environmental excitation, the model for ship dynamics, representing the ship response to the waves, the cargo model, representing the cargo and ship interaction, and the risk model, representing the statistical treatment of the cargo units exposed to the forces onboard the ship. Several case studies have been performed in order to evaluate the methodology, and to investigate the influence of cargo location, and ship and cargo parameters on the risk of cargo shifting. The results show that the methodology presented herein is a useful tool for the assessment of ship and cargo safety.


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    Title :

    Probabilistic Models for Ship Safety in Rough Seas. Final Report for Phase 1


    Contributors:
    A. Eriksson (author) / T. Kaellstam (author) / O. Rutgersson (author) / T. Thedeen (author)

    Publication date :

    1999


    Size :

    72 pages



    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




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