To enable easy comparison, all the plutonium shipping evaluations have used the same bases. In each, the results have been related to a future time--the early 1980s--when plutonium shipments are expected to be more frequent. The characteristics of the nuclear economy used in this analysis are: A total of 18 metric tons (MT) of plutonium is shipped annually, via the mode being evaluated. 100 kg of plutonium are transported per shipment. For air shipment, a truck and air segment are considered. The average shipping distance per shipment is 1,422 miles with 14 percent of the distance being by truck. Shipping systems and regulations are the same as in 1974. PuO sub 2 is shipped in 6M containers. The use of other shipping conditions could result in different risks than reported here. For the purposes of this study, plutonium dioxide was assumed to be carried exclusively in the 15-gal version of the 6M container. Unless otherwise noted, all references to 6M containers in the report refer to this particular size. Based on the shipping assumptions, the likelihood that an aircraft carrying a shipment will be involved in an accident is estimated to be about once in 450 years. For the projected shipping rate in the early 1980s, the likelihood of a release of plutonium as a result of shipment by air is one in 900 years for dioxide powder in the 6M container. The comparison of the truck and air transport modes for the same material showed truck transport to have less risk. At the same time, the air transport of plutonium dioxide was demonstrated to have a lower risk than other commonly accepted societal risks. The major contributor to the overall risk spectra for air transport was a cargo airplane, carrying plutonium dioxide, crashing at high speed into hard rock. (ERA citation 02:051034)


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    Title :

    Assessment of the Risk of Transporting Plutonium Dioxide by Cargo Aircraft


    Contributors:

    Publication date :

    1977


    Size :

    165 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




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