Considering over half of the worlds exported supply of these four commodities are exported via maritime means, the free flow of marine traffic becomesparamount. Current models lack the ability to capture the inherent variance displayed in the maritime transport system, which can lead to inaccurateassumptions about how the system functions - assumptions that could ultimately bring chaos to an importing economy. To capture this inherent variance, adiscrete-event simulation was built to better understand how disruptions in this system impact those who rely on its unhindered functionality. Monthly exportdata is used, and the maritime chokepoints of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Gibraltar are modeled for disruption. Results indicatesignificant food shortages for all importers studied, with some receiving 97 less of a commodity in a given month. China is particularly sensitive to a closureof the Panama Canal in the months of September - January. Egypt and Spain could expect significant food decreases if the Strait of Gibraltar were to closein any month, with Spain experiencing its worst declines should a disruption occur in September. Marine traffic through the Strait of Malacca was alsosignificantly impacted when any of the three chokepoints studied were closed.
Simulating Maritime Chokepoint Disruption in the Global Food Supply
2019
68 pages
Report
No indication
English
Data & Information Systems , Databases , Identification systems , North america , Automatic identification systems , Canals , Eurasia , Simulations , Waterways , Panama canal , Security , Shipping , Suez canal , United nations , United states government , Supply chain , United states , Topography , Air force , Geography , Marine transportation , Discrete-event simulation , Maritime transportation , Chokepoint analysis , Global trade , Food security , Economics
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