The substantial decline in 1982 notwithstanding, motor vehicle fatalities are expected to resume their long term upward trend for the remainder of the 1980 decade and reach a level of approximately 50,000 by 1990. This projection is based upon a greater number of drivers and vehicles, an increase in travel, and a return to higher rates of economic growth. Although the absolute number of fatalities is expected to increase, the relative risk per unit of travel is expected to continue to drop as it has over the past half century. In developing the forecast of motor vehicle fatalities in 1990, five factors were considered: population, drivers, vehicles, travel, and economic activity. As a preliminary step, a simple extrapolation of the 1974-1982 rates for these factors was examined. Following that, a disaggregated analysis was performed. The forecast values are based on the results of the disaggregated analysis.
Traffic Safety Trends and Forecasts
1983
130 pages
Report
No indication
English
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