The major economic impacts that result from petroleum-supply interruptions and the subsequent effects on the demand for freight transportation are described. This analysis involved a simulation of the effects of three different fuel-supply shortfalls on intercity freight transportation. The research included the use of three economic and transportation models to simulate the economic impacts of oil shortfalls and the resulting change in freight-transportation demand as expressed in tons shipped, ton-miles of travel, and fuel use. Economic effects are discussed for a base case and then for a 7%, 14%, and 23% petroleum shortfall. The demand for freight transportation is determined by the output of various commodity sectors which generate traffic for the truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes. The effects of various diesel-fuel-price levels are also examined. The analysis suggests that at low, or controlled, fuel prices the more significant impacts for freight movements will be the reduction in output in the bulk-commodity sectors, which are dominated by the waterway and rail modes. At high fuel prices (i.e., equilibrium levels), shipping is significantly decreased in all commodity sectors, but mode shifts are likely to occur from truck to rail, and even from rail to water in some corridors. (ERA citation 08:020946)
Economic Impacts of Petroleum Shortages and the Implications for the Freight-Transportation Industry
1982
29 pages
Report
No indication
English
Energy Use, Supply, & Demand , Fuels , Policies, Regulations & Studies , Road Transportation , Petroleum , Transportation sector , Energy shortages , Economic impact , Cargo , Forecasting , Mathematical models , Gross national product , Diesel fuels , Gasoline , Prices , Fuel consumption , ERDA/320200 , ERDA/294002 , ERDA/292000
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