A well-known challenge in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models is to maintain correspondence between the forecasted economic and physical quantities over time. Maintaining such a correspondence is necessary to understand how economic forecasts reflect, and are constrained by, relationships within the underlying physical system. This work develops a method for projecting global demand for passenger vehicle transport, retaining supplemental physical accounting for vehicle stock, fuel use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This method is implemented in the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis Version 5 (EPPA5) model and includes several advances over previous approaches. First, the relationship between per-capita income and demand for passenger vehicle transport services (in vehicle-miles traveled, or VMT) is based on econometric data and modeled using quasi-homothetic preferences. Second, the passenger vehicle transport sector is structured to capture opportunities to reduce fleet-level gasoline use through the application of vehicle efficiency or alternative fuel vehicle technologies, introduction of alternative fuels, or reduction in demand for VMT. Third, alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) are introduced into the EPPA model. Fixed costs as well as learning effects that could affect the rate of AFV introduction are captured explicitly. This model development lays the foundation for assessing policies that differentiate based on vehicle age and efficiency, alter the relative prices of fuels, or focus on promoting specific advanced vehicle or fuel technologies.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Applying Engineering and Fleet Detail to Represent Passenger Vehicle Transport in a Computable General Equilibrium Model


    Contributors:
    Karplus, V.J. (author) / Paltsev, S. (author) / Babiker, M. (author) / Heywood, J. (author) / Reilly, J.M. (author)

    Publication date :

    2012


    Remarks:

    http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2270
    Report no. 216


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    SPATIAL COMPUTABLE - GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT - EVALUATION OF JAPANESE NEW SHINKANSEN PROJECT

    Koike, A. / Ueda, T. / World Conference on Transport Research Society | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2003


    Transportation and Tourism in Hawaii: Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Konan, Demise Eby / Kim, Karl | Transportation Research Record | 2003


    Designing computable general equilibrium models for transportation applications

    Shahrokhi Shahraki, Hamed / Bachmann, Chris | Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2018