This paper presents a cognitive model designed to reproduce human drivers’ errors in predicting the motion of nearby vulnerable road users. We aim to define a computational model that, given both the trajectory of the eye gaze of a human driver and the trajectory of a bicycle, can compute the probability distribution of where the human driver believes the bicycle will be in the near future. For the design and validation of the proposed cognitive model, we tested 51 subjects in immersive virtual reality scenarios. The results indicate that the proposed model can generate probability distributions of the human drivers’ beliefs about the future bicycle position that are very similar, though not statistically equivalent, to those obtained experimentally. Such models could easily be generalized to describe how drivers misjudge the motion of other road users. This may enable ADAS to evaluate and improve drivers’ situational awareness. In the future, these models could also be used by autonomous cars to evaluate situational awareness of nearby humans, enabling a safer coexistence of autonomous vehicles and vulnerable road users.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Predicting Mispredictions: A Model of Human Misjudgment About Vulnerable Road Users’ Trajectories




    Publication date :

    2025-01-01


    Size :

    988209 byte




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Vulnerable Road Users: Cyclist

    Slop, M. / Vag-och transport-forskningsinstitutet | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1992


    METHOD FOR PREDICTING TRAJECTORIES OF ROAD USERS

    HOEVEL PASCAL / SCHAEFER MAXIMILIAN / ZHAO KUN | European Patent Office | 2024

    Free access

    Pose and Semantic Map Based Probabilistic Forecast of Vulnerable Road Users’ Trajectories

    Kress, Viktor / Jeske, Fabian / Zernetsch, Stefan et al. | IEEE | 2023


    Method and apparatus for predicting intent of vulnerable road users

    RANGA ADITHYA / BHANUSHALI JAGDISH | European Patent Office | 2023

    Free access

    METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR PREDICTING INTENT OF VULNERABLE ROAD USERS

    RANGA ADITHYA / BHANUSHALI JAGDISH | European Patent Office | 2022

    Free access