Trajectory-Based Operations require the development and execution of a trajectory-based plan which is subject to uncertainty as a result of trajectory prediction inaccuracy and disturbances. The impact of disturbances due to conflict detection/resolution and traffic synchronization are evaluated under different levels of prediction inaccuracy through Monte Carlo Simulation. Conflicts are estimated to contribute uncertainty below a 1% speed variation for look-ahead times beyond 2 hours. Traffic Synchronization is shown to further amplify any trajectory prediction inaccuracy. A process for the incremental assignment of delays is described using an optimum delay margin and credit to ensure a stable delay is assigned. The approach is shown to allow a shift from costly tactical delays to strategic, equitably assigning delays across stage lengths and providing significantly more predictable delays per flight prior to departure. Benefits are shown to increase as trajectory prediction accuracy is improved.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Trajectory-based operations — Robust planning under trajectory uncertainty


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2016-09-01


    Size :

    673867 byte





    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Trajectory Based Operations: Challenges Managing Trajectory Uncertainty

    Durbin, Martin / Noonan, Kimberly / Knorr, Dave et al. | IEEE | 2021


    Flight Planning Under Trajectory-Based Operations

    Mondoloni, Stephane | IEEE | 2018


    Robust Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Parafoils under Wind Uncertainty

    Luders, Brandon D. / Sugel, Ian / How, Jonathan P. | AIAA | 2013


    Robust Aircraft Trajectory Planning Under Wind Uncertainty Using Optimal Control

    González-Arribas, Daniel / Soler, Manuel / Sanjurjo-Rivo, Manuel | AIAA | 2017