Based on the observation that the correlation between observed traffic at two measurement points or traffic stations may be time-varying, attributable to the time-varying speed which subsequently causes variations in the time required to travel between the two points, in this paper, we develop a modified Space-Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model with time-varying lags for short-term traffic flow prediction. Particularly, the temporal lags in the modified STARIMA change with the time-varying speed at different time of the day or equivalently change with the (time-varying) time required to travel between two measurement points. Firstly, a technique is developed to evaluate the temporal lag in the STARIMA model, where the temporal lag is formulated as a function of the spatial lag (spatial distance) and the average speed. Secondly, an unsupervised classification algorithm based on ISODATA algorithm is designed to classify different time periods of the day according to the variation of the speed. The classification helps to determine the appropriate time lag to use in the STARIMA model. Finally, a STARIMA-based model with time-varying lags is developed for short-term traffic prediction. Experimental results using real traffic data show that the developed STARIMA-based model with time-varying lags has superior accuracy compared with its counterpart developed using the traditional cross-correlation function and without employing time-varying lags.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    STARIMA-based traffic prediction with time-varying lags


    Contributors:
    Peibo Duan (author) / Guoqiang Mao (author) / Changsheng Zhang (author) / Shangbo Wang (author)


    Publication date :

    2016-11-01


    Size :

    967154 byte





    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    A Multiple SVR Approach with Time Lags for Traffic Flow Prediction

    Wu, Tianshu / Xie, Kunqing / Song, Guojie et al. | IEEE | 2008


    Railway development lags behind traffic increase

    Engineering Index Backfile | 1922


    Time lags in QPO sources

    van der Klis, M. | Elsevier | 1988


    Location recognition over large time lags

    Fernando, B. / Tommasi, T. / Tuytelaars, T. | British Library Online Contents | 2015


    Maximum principle of distributed parameter systems with time lags

    Li, Xunjing / Yao, Yunglong | Springer Verlag | 1985