In order to grasp the development trend of aviation transportation incident and improve the level of aviation transportation safety management, a discrete grey model based on the time polynomial is constructed to predict the serious incident rate in aviation transportation per 10,000 hours. Based on the original data of the serious incident rate in aviation transportation per 10,000 hours from 2014 to 2019, using the polynomial discrete grey model for simulation, the results show that the model has high fitting accuracy for serious incident rate in aviation transportation per 10,000 hours, and the calculation is relatively simple. Finally, the model is used to predict the serious incident rate in aviation transportation per 10,000 hours in 2020. The results show that the model has good prediction accuracy, which verifies the validity and feasibility of the model.
Research on Air Transportation Accident Symptoms Based on Polynomial Discrete Grey Model
2022-10-12
964655 byte
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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