It is increasingly appreciated that models of combat and social-political behavior can be informative, helping us to anticipate possible future developments and the possible implications of contemplated actions. However, these models often cannot be relied upon to make predictions as accurate as those possible with models that have been developed in engineering and the physical sciences. Consequently, different standards for quality and methods for developing and exploiting these models are needed. Failure to understand this has resulted in general misuse of anticipatory modeling, either in treating anticipatory models as predictive, or by relegating such models to weak uses such as hypothesis generation. For many decision support applications, much of our knowledge is best expressed as computer models, and so it is important to develop valid means for aggressively exploiting anticipatory models. This paper will describe methods and technology developed at Evolving Logic for exploiting models that contain class knowledge, but do not accurately predict future events. Particular emphasis will be given to recent work which demonstrated the feasibility of developing robust decision options based on anticipatory social science models.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Supporting decisions with (less than perfect) social science models


    Contributors:
    Bankes, S. (author) / Popper, S. (author) / Lempert, R. (author)

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2006-01-01


    Size :

    873443 byte




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    The Less-Than-Perfect Driver

    Xin, Wuping / Hourdos, John / Michalopoulos, Panos et al. | Transportation Research Record | 2008



    Design of Less-than-Truckload Networks: Models and Methods

    Wollenweber, Jens / Schlutter, Stefanie | Springer Verlag | 2011


    FRAME SUPPORTING STRUCTURE WITH RECEIVING CONTAINER FOR LESS THAN ONE COMPONENT OF INDUSTRIAL MOTOR VEHICLE

    GRIMM TOMAS / FISSMANN TOBIAS / BRAUN RAJMAR et al. | European Patent Office | 2018

    Free access

    Aircraft operators maintenance decisions supporting method

    Sławomir Szrama / Adrian Gill | DOAJ | 2021

    Free access