To provide an orbit estimation apparatus, an orbit estimation method and an orbit estimation program for an artificial celestial body, which can accurately estimate an orbit element, even by estimating a short circular arc through an astronomical survey.SOLUTION: An orbit estimation method for a plurality of artificial celestial bodies, which performs orbit estimation by Bayes' estimation using MCMC, on the basis of an astronomical survey, comprises: a low-accuracy posterior distribution calculating step of obtaining a low-accuracy posterior distribution of orbit elements and sizes of celestial bodies from short circular arcs of respective orbits of a plurality of artificial celestial bodies obtained through an astronomical survey; an artificial celestial body identifying step of identifying a survey of the same artificial celestial body by comparing the posterior distributions with each other, with respect to different surveys, of surveys through the astronomical survey; and a high-accuracy posterior distribution calculating step of obtaining a high-accuracy posterior distribution of the orbit elements using surveys of three or more short circuit arcs of the same artificial celestial body.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 5
【課題】掃天観測による短い円弧の観測からでも、精度よく軌道要素を推定可能な人工天体の軌道推定装置、軌道推定方法、及び軌道推定プログラムを提供する。【解決手段】掃天観測に基づき、MCMCを用いたBayes推定によって軌道推定を行う複数の人工天体の軌道推定方法であって、掃天観測によって得られた、複数の人工天体のそれぞれの軌道の短い円弧から軌道要素および天体サイズの低精度事後分布を得る低精度事後分布算出ステップと、掃天観測による観測のうち、異なる観測について事後分布同士を比較することによって同一の人工天体についての観測を特定する人工天体特定ステップと、同一の人工天体についての3つ以上の短い円弧の観測を用いて軌道要素の高精度事後分布を得る高精度事後分布算出ステップとを備える。【選択図】図5
ORBIT ESTIMATION APPARATUS, ORBIT ESTIMATION METHOD AND ORBIT ESTIMATION PROGRAM FOR ARTIFICIAL CELESTIAL BODY
人工天体の軌道推定装置、軌道推定方法、及び軌道推定プログラム
2025-02-13
Patent
Electronic Resource
Japanese
IPC: | B64G Raumfahrt , COSMONAUTICS |
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