The invention provides an arctic navigation channel ship navigation risk dynamic assessment method based on a dynamic Bayesian network, and belongs to the technical field of ship navigation safety. The arctic navigation channel ship navigation risk factors are identified from three aspects of environment, people and ship; establishing an arctic navigation channel ship navigation risk grade standard; constructing a static Bayesian network graph model of the ship navigation risk of the arctic navigation channel; determining parameters of a static Bayesian network model, and constructing a dynamic Bayesian network of the ship navigation risk of the arctic navigation channel; dynamically evaluating the ship navigation risk of the arctic navigation channel based on a dynamic Bayesian network; according to the method, environment, ship and human factors are considered, years of marine meteorological reanalysis data and expert knowledge are combined, updating can be carried out according to past, current and future conditions, and the risk of ice trapping and ship-ice collision of the arctic waterway is dynamically evaluated.
本发明提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的北极航道船舶航行风险动态评估方法,属于船舶航行安全技术领域,首先从环境‑人‑船三方面识别影响北极航道船舶航行风险因素;建立北极航道船舶航行风险等级标准;构建北极航道船舶航行风险静态贝叶斯网络图模型;确定静态贝叶斯网络模型参数,构建北极航道船舶航行风险动态贝叶斯网络;基于动态贝叶斯网络对北极航道船舶航行风险进行动态评估;本发明考虑了环境、船舶和人为因素,并结合了多年海洋气象再分析数据和专家知识,能够根据过去、现在和未来的条件进行更新,对北极航道冰困和船冰碰撞风险进行动态评估。
Dynamic evaluation method for ship navigation risk in arctic navigation channel based on dynamic Bayesian network
一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的北极航道船舶航行风险动态评估方法
2025-03-25
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
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