The invention belongs to the technical field of marine ship traffic safety, and particularly discloses a multi-ship collision risk prediction method. According to the method, a multi-ship collision risk prediction model fusing an entropy weight method, TOPSIS and analytic hierarchy process AHP is provided, the model evaluates the collision risk among multiple ships, and the collision risk of the multiple ships is predicted by carefully considering the relative distance, the relative speed, the distance to the nearest approaching point, the time to the nearest approaching point, the course angle difference and other factors. The method comprises the following steps: accurately calculating a key index between each pair of ships, determining the weight of each key index according to an entropy weight, carrying out decision analysis based on a TOPSIS method to obtain risk indexes between multiple pairs of ships, and further integrating the risk indexes between multiple pairs of ships based on an AHP algorithm, thereby being beneficial to comprehensively analyzing the mutual influence between the ships, predicting the overall collision risk general situation of the target ship, and improving the reliability of the target ship. And the comprehensiveness and the accuracy of marine ship traffic conflict risk assessment are remarkably improved.
本发明属于海域船舶交通安全技术领域,具体公开了一种多船碰撞风险预测方法。该方法中提出一个融合熵权法、TOPSIS以及层次分析AHP的多船碰撞风险预测模型,该模型针对多艘船舶之间的碰撞风险进行评估,通过细致考量相对距离、相对速度、到最近接近点的距离、到最近接近点的时间和航向角度差等因素,精确计算每对船舶间的关键指标,并依据熵权确定各关键指标的权重,并基于TOPSIS法进行决策分析得到多对船舶间的风险指数,进一步基于AHP算法整合多对船舶的风险指数,利于全面分析各船间的相互影响,预测出目标船舶的整体碰撞风险概况,显著提升了海域船舶交通冲突风险评估的全面性和准确性。
Multi-ship collision risk prediction method
一种多船碰撞风险预测方法
2024-12-27
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
Ship collision risk calculation method considering uncertainty of ship position prediction
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