The invention discloses a road traffic flow speed prediction method and system considering driving behavior heterogeneity and parameter correlation, and the method comprises the steps: employing the variance of the traffic flow speed to represent the heterogeneity of the driving behavior of a driver, and building a quantitative relation between the variance of the traffic flow speed and the traffic flow density through a mathematical statistics model; establishing a quantitative relation among the traffic flow speed, the speed variance and the traffic flow density by adopting a traffic flow model, and constructing a road traffic flow speed prediction model considering the driving behavior heterogeneity; a correlation random parameter model is adopted to represent the correlation of the traffic flow parameters, and a road traffic flow speed prediction model considering the correlation of the traffic flow parameters is constructed; bayesian updating is adopted in the same model framework, all parameters of the two-stage traffic flow model are calibrated at the same time, and the model goodness of fit of the two stages can be made to be the best at the same time through multiple times of iterative updating. According to the invention, the road traffic flow speed can be predicted more accurately, and the accuracy of road traffic state pre-judgment is improved.
本发明公开了一种考虑驾驶行为异质性和参数相关性的道路交通流速度预测方法与系统,包括:采用交通流速度的方差代表驾驶员驾驶行为的异质性,用数理统计模型,建立交通流速度的方差与车流密度的定量关系;采用交通流模型建立交通流速度、速度方差和车流密度之间的定量化关系,构建考虑驾驶行为异质性的道路交通流速度预测模型;采用相关随机参数模型代表交通流参数的相关性,构建考虑交通流参数相关性的道路交通流速度预测模型;采用贝叶斯更新在同一模型框架内,同时对两阶段交通流模型所有参数进行标定,经过多次迭代更新能够同时使两个阶段的模型拟合优度最好。本发明能够更加精准地预测道路交通流速度,提高了道路交通状态预判的准确性。
Road traffic flow speed prediction method and system considering driving behavior heterogeneity and parameter correlation
考虑驾驶行为异质性和参数相关性的道路交通流速度预测方法与系统
2024-08-09
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
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