The invention discloses an ensemble forecast thought-based aircraft bumping prediction method. The method comprises the following steps of: extracting ERA5 reanalysis data according to the time when an aircraft reports bumping cases; performing numerical simulation on the ERA5 reanalysis data by adopting a WRF4.1 numerical forecasting mode to obtain high-resolution meteorological data; based on a numerical simulation result, respectively calculating and analyzing the indication effects of the plurality of forecast indexes on the bumping of the airplane; determining an aircraft bumping forecasting effect evaluation method, and eliminating bumping forecasting indexes with extremely poor forecasting effects; and determining a bumping ensemble forecast index, a bumping-free ensemble forecast index and a bumping intensity ensemble According to the invention, the thought of ensemble forecasting is utilized to explore a better airplane bumping forecasting index, and the airplane bumping forecasting accuracy is improved.

    本发明公开了一种基于集合预报思想的飞机颠簸预测方法,包括:根据飞机报告有、无颠簸个例的时间提取ERA5再分析资料;采用WRF4.1数值预报模式对ERA5再分析资料进行数值模拟,获得高分辨率气象数据;基于数值模拟结果,分别计算分析多种预报指数对飞机颠簸的指示效果;确定飞机颠簸预报效果评估方法,并剔除预报效果极差的颠簸预报指数;确定有、无颠簸集合预报指数和颠簸强度集合预报指数。本发明利用集合预报的思想,探究更好的飞机颠簸预报指标,提高飞机颠簸预报准确率。


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    Title :

    Aircraft bumping prediction method based on ensemble forecasting thought


    Additional title:

    一种基于集合预报思想的飞机颠簸预测方法


    Contributors:
    ZHANG XIAOHUI (author) / LU YONGJI (author) / ZHANG SHOUYE (author) / DU HAILONG (author)

    Publication date :

    2024-05-03


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / B64F GROUND OR AIRCRAFT-CARRIER-DECK INSTALLATIONS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR USE IN CONNECTION WITH AIRCRAFT , Boden- oder Flugzeugträgerdeckeinrichtungen besonders ausgebildet für die Verwendung in Verbindung mit Luftfahrzeugen



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