The invention discloses a highway network macroscopic cascade failure prediction method under large emergencies. The method comprises the following steps: identifying whether each road section of a highway network is congested in different time periods according to detection data; judging the state of each road section at the current time node t, wherein the road section state comprises a free flow road section, a recovery road section, a congested road section and a propagation road section; shock wave speeds of different road sections and propagation time of shock waves on the road sections are calculated according to conversion of the road section states; and calculating the conversion rate of each road section state at the current time node t, generating a cascade failure evolution model of the highway network, and predicting to obtain a macroscopic evolution rule of the cascade failure of the highway network. According to the method, the evolution law of macroscopic cascade failure of the highway network can be explored, and the failure degrees of the highway section at different time nodes can be predicted.

    本发明公开了一种大型突发事件下的高速路网宏观级联失效预测方法,包括:根据检测数据识别高速路网各个路段在不同时段是否拥堵;判断当前时间节点t各个路段的状态,路段状态包括自由流路段、恢复路段、拥堵路段和传播中路段;根据路段状态的转换计算得到不同路段的冲击波速度和冲击波在路段上的传播时间;计算当前时间节点t每种路段状态的转换率,生成高速路网的级联失效演化模型,预测得到高速公路网络级联失效的宏观演化规律。本发明能够探究高速路网宏观级联失效的演化规律,预测高速路段在不同时间节点的失效程度。


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    Title :

    Method for predicting macroscopic cascade failure of highway network under large emergencies


    Additional title:

    一种大型突发事件下的高速路网宏观级联失效预测方法


    Contributors:
    WANG JIAN (author) / TANG SHI (author) / HAN MIN (author) / JIANG XINCHUN (author)

    Publication date :

    2024-01-26


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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