The invention discloses a traffic flow-oriented on-line prediction method, which realizes rapid detection and adaptation of a traffic flow prediction system and performs on-line learning and prediction. An intelligent prediction device comprising a learner and a detector is designed. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, carrying out offline initialization, and then after receiving online traffic flow data, detecting whether the environment is changed drastically by a detector: if so, sending a restart signal to restart a learning device; and if not, enabling the learner to continuously learn and update so as to quickly detect and adapt to the environment change. On a detector, an environment change detection method based on wavelet transformation is designed, changes are estimated through frequency domain information, and the environment change is effectively and rapidly detected and adapted. On a learner, a weight adjustment mechanism is designed by using online data information, and a learner model is dynamically updated on the basis of the weight adjustment mechanism. According to the method, the learner can run in a relatively stable interval through a self-adaptive restart mechanism to cope with a rapidly changing environment.

    本发明公开一种面向交通流量在线预测方法,实现交通流量预测系统的快速检测与适应,进行在线学习与预测。设计一个包括学习器和检测器的智能预测设备。首先进行离线初始化,随后当收到在线交通流量数据后,检测器首先检测环境是否发生剧烈变化:如果是,发送重启信号使学习器重启;如果否,就让学习器继续学习与更新,从而快速检测并适应环境变化。在检测器上,设计了一种基于小波变换的环境变化检测方法,利用频域信息估计变化,有效快速地检测并适应环境变化。在学习器上,利用在线数据信息设计了权重调整机制,以此为基准对学习器模型进行动态更新。方法能够通过自适应重启机制,让学习器运行在相对平稳的区间内,应对快速变化的环境。


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    Title :

    Online prediction method for traffic flow


    Additional title:

    一种面向交通流量在线预测方法


    Contributors:
    ZHAO PENG (author) / ZHOU ZHIHUA (author) / QIAN YUYANG (author)

    Publication date :

    2024-01-26


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES



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