The invention relates to the technical field of traffic management, in particular to a method for predicting severity interaction of traffic accidents at the combination of an urban area and urban and rural areas. The accident data comprises an accident number, an accident date, an accident site, a name of a road where a participant is located, an accident occurrence time period, an accident severity degree, an accident form, an accident type, an accident grade, a field form and a traffic flow of an accident road section before an accident occurs; people, vehicles, roads and environmental factors related to the accident are collected; the age, gender and number of people injured by the accident and all the number of people related to the accident are collected; collecting the vehicle number, the vehicle type and the like related to the accident; according to the method, the severity interaction of the traffic accidents in the urban area and the urban-rural combination can be evaluated and effectively predicted by constructing the quasi-uncorrelated double-variable ordered probit model and the grouping random parameter quasi-uncorrelated double-variable probit model, and the heterogeneity caused by unknown factors can be explained.
本发明涉及交通管理技术领域,具体涉及一种城区与城乡结合部交通事故严重程度交互作用的预测方法,包括:采集初始交通信息,采集事故数据:事故数据包括:事故编号、事故日期、事故地点、参与方所在道路名称、事故发生时段、事故严重程度、事故形态、事故类型、事故等级、现场形态、事发前事故路段车流量;采集事故相关的人、车、道路和环境因素:采集事故损伤人的年龄、性别、人数和事故涉及的所有人数;采集事故涉及的车辆数、车辆类型等;本发明通过构建似不相关双变量有序probit模型和分组随机参数似不相关双变量probit模型,既可以对城区和城乡结合部的交通事故严重程度交互作用进行评估和有效预测,又可以对未知因素造成的异质性进行解释。
Method for predicting severity interaction of traffic accidents in urban area and urban-rural combination part
一种城区与城乡结合部交通事故严重程度交互作用的预测方法
2024-01-09
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES |
The severity and consequences of injuries in urban traffic accidents
Automotive engineering | 1981
|Model of Traffic Accidents Influence Area on Urban Road
ASCE | 2011
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