The invention discloses a route optimization method under an uncertain meteorological sea condition forecast condition. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, comprehensively analyzing uncertainty in meteorological sea condition forecasting, establishing a forecasting residual model of different meteorological sea condition elements, and mining a fluctuation rule of forecasting residual by utilizing historical marine meteorological forecasting data and corresponding actual sea condition observation data; secondly, a route optimization problem model is established, and the steering point position and the route segment navigational speed are optimized at the same time; and finally, considering the uncertainty in meteorological sea condition forecasting, establishing a ship anti-storm risk probability model, introducing the ship anti-storm risk probability model into a ship route optimization problem solving process, and proposing a probabilistic fitness evaluation model to improve the safety and robustness of a ship route. According to the ship route optimization method under the uncertain meteorological sea condition forecasting condition, the ship navigation risk caused by the meteorological sea condition forecasting uncertainty can be reduced to the maximum extent, and the optimized ship route has higher safety and reliability.

    本发明公开了一种不确定性气象海况预报条件下的航线优化方法。首先对气象海况预报中的不确定性进行全面分析,建立不同气象海况要素的预报残差模型,利用历史海洋气象预报数据以及对应的实际海况观测数据,挖掘预报残差的波动规律;其次,建立航线优化问题模型,实现转向点位置和航段航速的同时优化;最后,考虑气象海况预报中的不确定性,建立船舶抗风浪风险概率模型,并引入到航线优化问题求解过程中,提出概率性适应度评估模型,提高航线的安全性与稳健性。本发明提出的不确定性气象海况预报条件下的航线优化方法,能够最大限度地降低气象海况预报不确定性带来的船舶航行风险,使优化后的航线具有更高的安全性和可靠性。


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    Title :

    Airline optimization method under uncertain meteorological sea condition forecast condition


    Additional title:

    不确定性气象海况预报条件下的航线优化方法


    Contributors:

    Publication date :

    2023-09-29


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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