The invention relates to the field of traffic control, in particular to a terminal area flow prediction method and system based on multivariate time sequence analysis, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining basic data in a terminal area; preprocessing the basic data, and constructing a multivariate time sequence database for traffic prediction of a terminal area; performing segmentation and symbolization representation on data in the multivariate time sequence database based on a trend and mean value time sequence representation method; performing feature screening and dimension reduction on the segmented and symbolized multivariate time series data by using a random forest model, and constructing a feature matrix; constructing a terminal area flow prediction model based on CNN-GRUA, inputting the feature matrix into the trained terminal area flow prediction model, and outputting a terminal area flow prediction result; the method is helpful for control personnel to understand the expected traffic situation, provides important decision support information for traffic allocation, improves the flight arrival and departure efficiency, relieves the traffic pressure of an airport terminal area, and improves the operation efficiency of a whole air traffic system.

    本发明涉及交通管制领域,具体涉及一种基于多元时序分析的终端区流量预测方法及系统,本方法包括:获取终端区内的基础数据;对所述基础数据进行预处理,构建用于终端区流量预测的多元时序数据库;基于趋势与均值的时间序列表示方法,对多元时序数据库内的数据进行分段和符号化表示;利用随机森林模型对分段和符号化表示的多元时序数据进行特征筛选和降维,构造特征矩阵;构建基于CNN‑GRUA的终端区流量预测模型,并将所述特征矩阵输入训练好的终端区流量预测模型,输出终端区流量预测结果;本方法有助于管制人员了解预期交通态势,为交通调配提供重要的决策支持信息,提高航班进离场效率,缓解机场终端区交通压力,从而提升整个空中交通系统的运行效率。


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    Title :

    Terminal area flow prediction method and system based on multivariate time sequence analysis


    Additional title:

    基于多元时序分析的终端区流量预测方法及系统


    Contributors:
    ZHU WEIQI (author) / CHEN HAIYAN (author) / YUAN LIGANG (author) / TIAN WEN (author) / ZHANG YING (author) / XIE HUA (author)

    Publication date :

    2023-06-23


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen



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