The invention discloses a rolling prediction method for road path travel time. The method comprises the following steps: 1, building a time sequence model according to the historical travel time data of each road section; 2, predicting each road section at the t moment by 1 steps to obtain an initial predicted value of the path travel time, and calculating the average travel time of each road section according to the initial predicted value of the path travel time; 3, performing dynamic error correction on the initial predicted value of the path travel time of each road section at the t + 1 moment to obtain a predicted value of the previous 1 step at the t + 1 moment; and based on the corrected path travel time predicted value of each road section and the average travel time of each road section at the t moment, carrying out time-staggered accumulation on the initial predicted value of the initial path travel time to obtain a rolling predicted value of the path travel time at the t + 1 moment, and obtaining the average travel time of each road section. According to the rolling prediction method for the road path travel time, a predicted value fitting the actual path travel time can be obtained.

    本发明公开了一种道路路径行程时间的滚动预测方法,包括以下步骤,步骤一,根据各路段历史行程时间数据,分别建立时间序列模型;步骤二,t时刻对每一个路段进行向前l步预测,得到路径行程时间的初始预测值,并且根据路径行程时间的初始预测值计算得到各路段的平均行程时间;步骤三,t+1时刻对每一个路段的路径行程时间的初始预测值进行动态误差修正,得到t+1时刻向前l步的预测值;基于修正后的各路段的路径行程时间预测值,以及t时刻各路段的平均行程时间,对初始路径行程时间的初始预测值进行错时累加,得到t+1时刻路径行程时间的滚动预测值,并得到各路段平均行程时间。该道路路径行程时间的滚动预测方法可得到贴合实际的路径行程时间的预测值。


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    Title :

    Rolling prediction method for road path travel time


    Additional title:

    一种道路路径行程时间的滚动预测方法


    Contributors:
    DOU HUILI (author) / YANG XIAOGUANG (author) / LIU HAODE (author) / WANG GUOHUA (author)

    Publication date :

    2021-09-14


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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