The invention discloses a sea-crossing bridge ship collision early warning method based on risk prediction. The method is used for predicting the risk of collision between ships and piers entering a sea area of a bridge area. The method comprises: determining a risk sea area range; acquiring a real-time position of a ship to form track sample data of the ship; training a dynamic regression model by taking the ship track as sample data, and predicting the position of the ship at the next moment; predicting the risk probability that the ship impacts the bridge according to the relative positionsof the ship and the piers; setting a risk threshold value, and taking emergency measures for high-risk ships; and updating the dynamic regression model in real time, and keeping monitoring and earlywarning for the low-risk ship which is not safe to cross the bridge. According to the method, the limitation of a method in the prior art in the field of cross-sea bridge ship collision protection isovercome, the risk that the ship collides with the bridge can be effectively predicted, and therefore the safety of the ship and the bridge structure is protected.

    本发明公开了一种基于风险预测的跨海桥梁船撞预警方法,用于预测进入桥区海域的船舶和桥墩发生碰撞的风险。包括确定风险海域的范围;获取船舶的实时位置,构成船舶的航迹样本数据;以船舶航迹为样本数据训练动态回归模型,并预测船舶下一时刻所在位置;根据船舶和桥墩的相对位置预测船舶撞击桥梁的风险概率;设立风险阈值,对高风险船舶采取应急措施;实时更新动态回归模型,对尚未安全过桥的低风险船舶保持监测预警。本发明克服了现有技术方法在跨海大桥船撞防护领域的局限性,能有效地预测船舶撞击桥梁的风险大小,从而保护船舶和桥梁结构的安全。


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    Title :

    Sea-crossing bridge ship collision early warning method based on risk prediction


    Additional title:

    一种基于风险预测的跨海桥梁船撞预警方法


    Contributors:
    GUO JIAN (author) / QIU LIQI (author)

    Publication date :

    2020-12-04


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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