The invention discloses a risk recognition method for operating vehicle road traffic accidents. The method includes: establishing a database of the operating vehicle traffic accidents, extracting risk sequences of an accident chain reaction, and constructing a random Petri network model of the accident chain reaction; conducting a system performance analysis by employing an isomorphic Markov chain; regarding road transportation enterprise traffic accident statistics data and operation management data as initial data, calculating the generation probability of risk accidents by employing fuzzy Delphi and Bayesian inference methods, and guaranteeing the correctness of the calculating result from two aspects of logic and calculation; and recognizing an accident chain in need of key monitoring via the comparison of the path risk degree. According to the method, the accident coupling conversion characteristics can be revealed, the key risk paths for the operating vehicle road traffic accidents are recognized, corresponding risk sequences and risk degrees are provided, and high practical guidance values are provided for risk recognition and early warning of the operating vehicle road traffic accidents.
Risk recognition method for operating vehicle road traffic accidents
2015-11-18
Patent
Electronic Resource
English
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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