Abstract This investigation analysed the growing impact of commercial aviation on CO2 emissions, as well as its potential impact on climate change. It reviewed the effects of the Japanese Aviation Fuel Tax (koukuukinenryouzei), which has been levied on fuel loaded into all domestic flights in Japan since 1972. Using a Bayesian structural time series model, based on monthly observations of fuel consumption between 2004 and 2013 provided by the Ministry of Land, Transport, Infrastructure and Tourism - Japan, this research estimated the effect that this tax has had on the national demand for aviation fuel. It was established that the fuel tax has unequivocally reduced the amount of CO2 emissions from aircraft.

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    Highlights At a 13% AAGR of domestic RTK, Japan's jet fuel tax works well as a carbon tax. Japanese airlines' group pressures the government to abolish the tax altogether. After a 30% cut in aviation fuel tax in 2011, jet fuel demand grew by almost 10%.


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