Highlights ► Decision tree model is used to estimate the loss to global economy under the extreme-scenario. ► Discrete choice model are used to simulate the route choices of the ships. ► Malacca Paradox is identified and analyzed in this study.

    Abstract This paper proposes a decision tree model to estimate the loss to global economy on the hypothesis of an extreme scenario of blockade of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. The insurance surcharges, inventory costs and the time values of cargoes, and Time Charter Equivalent rate are used to estimate the psychological loss, the loss to industries, and the loss to carriers, respectively. Interestingly, there is a pseudo-paradoxical phenomenon with respect to the loss to carriers. An illustrative example is also provided to explain the “Malacca Paradox”.


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    Title :

    The economic importance of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore: An extreme-scenario analysis


    Contributors:
    Qu, Xiaobo (author) / Meng, Qiang (author)


    Publication date :

    2011-07-31


    Size :

    8 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English







    Coastal Oceanographic Studies off Perlis, Straits of Malacca

    Theem, L. A. / Eastern Marine Fisheries Development Center| Japan International Cooperation Agency | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1995