AbstractA technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2003-10-08


    Size :

    22 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Integrated Method for Road Network Reliability under Stochastic Demand

    Xiong, Z. / Shao, C. / Yao, Z. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2006


    Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model Considering Park & Ride Network and Travel Time Reliability

    Ni, Anning / Lin, Xuxun / Luo, Jing | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2018


    Stochastic Network Equilibrium Under Stochastic Demand

    Watling, D. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2002