Highlights The paper shows that the Delphi Technique along with Bayesian Network Model can be used as a means to generate highway traffic safety data in developing countries that generally do not have such data at all. In order to authenticate the technique used, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its early stages of development in addition to the availability of excellent highway safety records in its database, is chosen and utilized for this purpose. Validation of the methodology confirms the technique is suitable for application in developing countries. The result shows how effective policy enforcement and highway traffic education when applied to other variable can further benefit these developing countries in terms of highway traffic safety.

    Abstract Highway traffic accidents all over the world result in more than 1.3 million fatalities annually. An alarming number of these fatalities occurs in developing countries. There are many risk factors that are associated with frequent accidents, heavy loss of lives, and property damage in developing countries. Unfortunately, poor record keeping practices are very difficult obstacle to overcome in striving to obtain a near accurate casualty and safety data. In light of the fact that there are numerous accident causes, any attempts to curb the escalating death and injury rates in developing countries must include the identification of the primary accident causes. This paper, therefore, seeks to show that the Delphi Technique is a suitable alternative method that can be exploited in generating highway traffic accident data through which the major accident causes can be identified. In order to authenticate the technique used, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its early stages of development in addition to the availability of excellent highway safety records in its database, is chosen and utilized for this purpose. Validation of the methodology confirms the technique is suitable for application in developing countries. Furthermore, the Delphi Technique, in combination with the Bayesian Network Model, is utilized in modeling highway traffic accidents and forecasting accident rates in the countries of research.


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    Title :

    Alternative method of highway traffic safety analysis for developing countries using delphi technique and Bayesian network


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2016-04-18


    Size :

    12 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English







    Traffic safety in developing countries

    Haight, Frank A. | Elsevier | 1983


    A framework for traffic safety research in developing countries

    Downing, A. / Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Securite | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1989