Highlights Bus accidents on routes with and without bus priority in Melbourne were analysed. Significant reduction in certain bus-involved accidents were recorded. Mixed-effects negative binomial and neural network modelling were done. Results showed the mixed-effects negative binomial model performed slightly better. Model results also showed significant safety benefits of bus priority.
Abstract This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes.
Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority
Accident Analysis and Prevention ; 65 ; 18-27
2013-12-05
10 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority
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